Modelización de la ATmósfera y RAdiación Solar

Evaluation and optimisation of solar irradiance forecast with mesoscale NWP models in comparaision to irradiance forecasts based on the ECMWF forecasts for souther spain.

In this project we aim to evaluate the feasibility of forecasting the solar energy resources in Andalusia (southern part of the Iberian Peninsula) with up to three days lead times using the MM5 and WRF NWPs and processed outputs of the ECMWF global model.

This region of Spain is selected because it will become, in a few years, the area of the world with the highest solar-energy-origin electricity production.

Today, projects on this field totalize more than 300 MW.

The two groups involved in this project will follow different approaches for these forecasts.

Particularly, the Univ. of Jaén group will used the MM5 model, focusing on the topography and aerosol effects on the forecasts.

The Univ. of Oldenburg group will use the WRF model and processed ECMWF outputs, focusing of the improvement in the forecast that this post-processing could give rise.

Nevertheless, both groups will share the ground truth data.

This will allow for an evaluation and comparison of these approaches.

The two approaches are now described separately.